Expert Who Predicted Turkey’s Mega-Earthquake Says Greece Faces Volcanic Risk

Santorini. Credit: Greek Reporter

Controversial Dutch researcher and seismologist Frank Hoogerbeets, who predicted Turkey’s devastating earthquake days before it occurred—an event that resulted in the loss of more than 50,000 lives—reported on Monday that Italy, Turkey and Greece are at risk of volcanic activity and earthquakes, as some regions have not experienced a significant earthquake in quite some time. Hoogerbeets says Greece faces significant risks from earthquakes and volcanic activity due to its unique tectonic setting.

Greece, a country loved worldwide for its stunning landscapes and ancient history, has been experiencing a difficult few weeks due to the earthquake swarm near the popular Aegean island of Santorini.

The expert shared his insights in a detailed video update posted on the SSGEOS YouTube channel. The SSGEOS is a research institute that monitors geometry between celestial bodies related to seismic activity.

In this video, he highlights the potential dangers of Greece’s active geology.

Earthquake & Volcanic Risk in Türkiye, Greece (Aegean Sea) and Italy (Ionian Sea).https://t.co/ermV8FMHi0

— Frank Hoogerbeets (@hogrbe) February 9, 2025

Plate Tectonics

The expert explained that Greece lies on the Aegean Sea plate, a region between several major tectonic plates, including the Anatolian plate to the east and the African plate to the south.

This constant pressure has historically led to significant earthquakes in the broader region of Greece.

For example, the North Anatolian Fault, which runs through Turkey, has produced devastating earthquakes, including the 7.8 and 7.5 magnitude earthquakes in recent years. While Greece has not experienced a magnitude 7 earthquake in over 120 years, the expert warns that this “silent period” may not last much longer.

“Sooner or later that is going to happen,” Hoogerbeets noted.

The buildup of tectonic stress, particularly in areas like Greece’s largest island, Crete, also raises concerns.

Crete was the epicenter of a massive, estimated 8.5 earthquake in 365 AD, one of the largest in history.

“This is because the African plate subducts the Aegean Sea plate,” the Dutch seismologist explained.

Hoogerbeets also noted that such events, though rare, show the region’s potential for catastrophic earthquakes. With pressure continuing to build, Greece could be overdue for a major seismic event.

Volcanic threat near Santorini

Credit: GreekReporter illustration

Greece historically faces risks from volcanic activity, in addition to earthquakes. The Hellenic Arc is a volcanic zone stretching from southern Turkey to Greece, including the infamous Santorini volcano.

Santorini’s eruption circa 1600 BC is a key volcanic event in history. Although rare, the volcano is still active.

Hoogerbeets noted on Monday that the ongoing earthquake swarm near Santorini could be linked to tectonic and volcanic processes. The region’s thin crust and underlying magma chambers increase the likelihood of volcanic activity.

While there is no current evidence of magma intrusion, shallow earthquakes in the area could signal changes beneath the surface.

“The crust is pretty thin there. We have magma chambers below… it is not unthinkable that a larger earthquake is going to happen in the area in the short term,” he noted.

Geological evidence suggests that the exact timing of earthquakes or volcanic eruptions cannot be predicted; however, Greece is in a high-risk zone. Understanding these risks is crucial for the safety and planning of residents and visitors.

A map of the tectonic plates in the central and eastern Mediterranean. Credit: Alataristarion Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0

Italy to be next?

In his video, Hoogerbeets explained that the Calabrian Arc in Southern Italy is another area of significant seismic and volcanic risk in the Mediterranean.

This area has been the center of major earthquakes, including two strong 7.1 and 7.2 magnitude tremors in southern Italy in the early 20th century. The Dutch expert also mentioned the Calabrian Arc’s relative quiet in the last 120 years.

Thus, Hoogerbeets, suggested that this seismic gap makes the area overdue for a major earthquake, potentially even larger than magnitude 7 on the Richter scale, and that the next significant earthquake in the region might occur there rather than in Greece.

He also extended this concern to Central Italy, saying there is the potential for a significant earthquake there, too.

Who is Hoogerbeets?

Frank Hoogerbeets is a Dutch researcher affiliated with the Solar System Geometry Survey (SSGEOS), known for predicting earthquakes based on unconventional and controversial methods like planetary alignments and celestial geometry.

He became globally famous in 2023 after accurately forecasting a major earthquake in Turkey shortly before it occurred. In a tweet a few days before the earthquake that killed tens of thousands of people in eastern Turkey and Syria, Hoogerbeets had said that a strong earthquake would happen in that area ”sooner or later.”

However, his methods are highly controversial, as they lack scientific consensus and are widely criticized by seismologists, who argue there is no proven link between planetary alignments and seismic activity.

Following Hoogerbeets’ viral “prediction,” several scientists and institutions publicly criticized him. Sherif al-Hadi of Egypt’s National Research Institute of Astronomy and Geophysics called his claims “inaccurate and irresponsible,” in an interview with Hespress.

At the same time, Susan Hough of the USGS said Hoogerbeets makes “scattershot statements and predictions” in an NPR interview while Roger Musson of the British Geological Survey had told Newsweek that Hoogerbeets’ forecasts fail to meet scientific criteria.

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